Will big tech building nuclear reactors help accelerate the US's transition to a sustainable grid?
The energy demands on data centers are going through the roof. From Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy:
[B]y 2027 GPUs will constitute about 1.7 percent of the total electric capacity or 4 percent of the total projected electricity sales in the United States. While this might seem minimal, it constitutes a considerable growth rate over the next six years and a significant amount of energy that will need to be supplied to data centers
According to US Energy Information Administration:
Fossil fuels accounted for about 60% of U.S. electricity generation in 2023
Nuclear energy as an alternative
Google and Amazon are exploring nuclear energy as a way to meet this demand:
Bill Gates has been a long time proponent of nuclear. PBS reports:
Bill Gates and his energy company are starting construction at their Wyoming site for a next-generation nuclear power plant he believes will “revolutionize” how power is generated.
Gates was in the tiny community of Kemmerer Monday to break ground on the project. The co-founder of Microsoft is chairman of TerraPower. The company applied to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in March for a construction permit for an advanced nuclear reactor that uses sodium, not water, for cooling. If approved, it would operate as a commercial nuclear power plant.
What impact will this have on the environment
If the US grid can increase its energy output, while also becoming cleaner and more efficient, it’s hard to argue against that.
My one concern is that if the US becomes suddenly flush with clean energy, will we increase our consumption habits accordingly? The net result would be Earth is no better protected from human-created environmental stressors.
Pushing the envelope
There’s a specific type of unintended consequence called risk compensation that may predict this adverse outcome of increased consumption.
From Wikipedia:
Risk compensation is a theory which suggests that people typically adjust their behavior in response to perceived levels of risk, becoming more careful where they sense greater risk and less careful if they feel more protected…
Anti-lock braking systems are designed to increase vehicle safety by allowing the vehicle to steer while braking.
A number of studies show that drivers of vehicles with ABS tend to drive faster, follow closer and brake later, accounting for the failure of ABS to result in any measurable improvement in road safety.
What can we do?
The only way the US can reap the benefits of a surplus of clean, available energy is to cap its usage in a controlled manner.
I have an ironic analogy for this concept.
Oil Money and Fiscal Policy
The discovery and commercialization of deep oil reserves has built the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. This fund owns an astounding 1.5% of all available equity in publicly traded companies.
You probably guessed what country I’m talking about. I’m, of course, talking about Saudi Ara… Norway — that’s right, Norway.
From Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund website:
Each year, the Norwegian government can spend only a small part of the fund, but this still amounts to almost 20 percent of the government budget.
There is a broad political consensus on how the fund should be managed. The less we spend today, the better the position we will be in to deal with downturns and crises in the future. Budget surpluses are transferred to the fund, while deficits are covered with money from the fund. In other words, the authorities can spend more in hard times and less in good times.
I think the we should follow Norway’s lead — not in terms of being one of the largest petrostates — but in terms of their prudence and future-mindedness.
I hope the US becomes a leader in producing sustainable energy. I also hope we are good stewards for the next generation and can use this energy sustainably.